Scenario Planning Model (Base Upside Downside)
Budgeting & Forecasting
Quick Answer
Define the key variables and assumptions for your base upside and downside scenarios. Paste into Claude or ChatGPT. Get a structured three-scenario model with financial outcomes and strategic implications.
What You Get
A complete three-scenario financial model covering base upside and downside assumptions, financial outcomes for each scenario, probability-weighted expected case, key trigger points that shift between scenarios, and strategic recommendations for each.
Who Is This For
CFOs presenting scenario analysis to boards and investors, finance teams stress-testing financial plans, and startup founders planning for multiple fundraising outcomes.
About This Template
Scenario planning forces leaders to confront uncertainty rather than pretend the future is knowable. A three-scenario model — base, upside, and downside — gives boards and management teams the context to make better decisions under uncertainty. This template guides finance teams through defining the key variables that drive each scenario, then uses AI to produce a structured three-scenario model with financial outcomes, probability-weighted expected case, and strategic implications for each scenario.
Fill In Your Details
Your company name
e.g. FY2027 or next 18 months
e.g. $14.25M, 35 percent growth, assumes 115 percent NRR and $2.1M new logo
What would have to go right for the upside case e.g. enterprise deal closes, new market launch succeeds
What would cause the downside case e.g. key customer churns, sales hire delayed, market slowdown
e.g. $12.5M total costs, headcount plan as approved
e.g. $3.2M
e.g. Base 60 percent, Upside 20 percent, Downside 20 percent
Gather these details then use them to fill in the prompt below.
AI Prompts
Generate three-scenario financial model
Paste this prompt into Claude or ChatGPT with your inputs filled in.
You are a CFO building a three-scenario financial model for board and management review. Using the inputs below, produce a structured scenario analysis. Company: [company_name] Planning period: [planning_period] Base case revenue: [base_revenue] Upside driver: [upside_driver] Downside driver: [downside_driver] Base case costs: [base_cost] Current cash: [current_cash] Scenario probabilities: [scenario_probabilities] Produce: 1. Base Case — revenue, costs, EBITDA, and cash position with full assumptions 2. Upside Case — 20-30 percent revenue premium over base with upside-specific assumptions 3. Downside Case — 20-30 percent revenue shortfall from base with downside assumptions and cost response 4. Financial Outcomes Table — side-by-side comparison of revenue, EBITDA, and year-end cash for all 3 scenarios 5. Probability-Weighted Expected Case — weighted average outcome based on stated probabilities 6. Scenario Trigger Points — specific metrics that would signal a shift from base to upside or downside 7. Strategic Recommendations — what management should do differently in each scenario Be specific about the financial numbers in each scenario. The downside case must include a cost response plan.
Sample Output
This is an example of what AI produces when you use this template.
Financial Outcomes Table
Base case: Revenue $14.25M, EBITDA $1.75M (12.3 percent margin), Year-end cash $4.1M. Upside case: Revenue $17.1M (20 percent above base), EBITDA $3.6M (21 percent margin), Year-end cash $6.3M. Downside case: Revenue $11.4M (20 percent below base), EBITDA -$1.1M (negative), Year-end cash $1.8M. Probability-weighted expected case: Revenue $13.98M, EBITDA $1.22M, Year-end cash $3.8M.
Downside Strategic Recommendations
If revenue tracks 10 percent below base by end of Q1 — activate the downside response immediately: freeze all non-essential hiring (save $480K annual), cut discretionary marketing spend by 40 percent (save $360K), and renegotiate or defer any software contracts over $20K annual. These actions bring the downside EBITDA from -$1.1M to approximately -$200K — preserving sufficient cash to reach profitability without raising capital. Trigger point: if March MRR is below $950K, activate downside plan on April 1.